KTXS Forecast: Elevated wildfire risk with warm temps, dry air and breezy conditions


ABILENE, Texas - Enjoy another warm day as high temperatures rebound back into the 70s. Sunny skies will continue but wind speeds will increase from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Due to the wind speeds increasing along with having dry and warm conditions, an elevated wildfire risk will be in effect across the Big Country. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged today.

Clear skies will remain in place tonight along with a slight breeze continuing from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. The elevated wind speeds will keep overnight lows warmer with lower to middle 40s forecast.

We will be tracking a weak cold front slowly move southward into the Big Country Wednesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler but sill above normal. High temps will range from the middle and upper 60s north of I-20 to upper 60s and lower 70s south of the interstate. Sunny skies will remain in place and rainfall is not expected to accompany this front.

Mostly sunny skies will build in Thursday with cooler air working in behind the front which should stall out near I-10. High temperatures will range from the middle to upper 50s along and north of I-20 to lower to middle 60s south of the interstate.

On Friday, the frontal boundary will remain stalled out over south Texas. This will aide in pulling moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly cloudy skies will build in response of the added moisture.

At this time, medium-range weather guidance is not in agreement with the smaller features of the overall weather pattern. Usually this isn't a big issue but this time it is as forecast temps are off by nearly 30 degrees. Looking at past weather patterns, I believe the forecast model calling for warmer temps is too aggressive and the model calling for cooler weather is also too aggressive.

With those disagreements in mind, trending towards the middle, in the 50s, looks to be the better approach for now given previous events to compare with and mostly cloudy skies building in.

There will be a small chance for showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder Friday night into Saturday as another disturbance sweeps across the Central Plains.

Temperatures should warm into the 60s under mostly cloudy skies, Saturday. As the disturbance pushes east, mostly sunny skies return Sunday along with high temps warming into the 70s.

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