KTXS Forecast: Tracking a warm start to the week with colder trend by mid-week


ABILENE, Texas - It's the first full week of 2017 and we begin it on the warm side. However, the warm trend doesn't stick around long as colder air returns Tuesday night.

For today, we are tracking mostly sunny skies with high temperatures returning to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will be out of the southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight, partly cloudy skies build back in with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. West-southwest winds should stay light at 5 to 10 mph.

A cold front will move into Texas on Tuesday afternoon and begin introducing a cooler air mass to the Big Country overnight.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s on Tuesday under partly cloudy skies.

We go back to the colder side Wednesday with high temperatures locking into the 40s and lower 50s. with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

As we reach Thursday, this is where forecast confidence goes to the low side. Currently, we are tracking an upper level disturbance meandering off of the coast of Washington.

Looking at guidance, two of the main weather models couldn't be more far apart in agreement. They differ on timing, strength, and track of the system which gives two different outcomes.

One model is suggesting that this system will begin moving east on Thursday and weaken. That means 50s for high temps going into Friday and the weekend with no precipitation.

The other model is showing the upper level disturbance maintaining strength and helping to send a swath of much colder air southward across the United States. High temps are forecast to top out in the 20s with maybe a few flurries flying around on Friday.

With two majorly different outcomes regarding the end part of the work week, confidence is low. My current thinking based on previous weather patterns similar to this, I am favoring the colder solution but not going all the way. I believe we will see colder temperatures but maybe not upper 20s.

We still have plenty of time for things to change so we will need to wait and see how the latest runs with forecast guidance change.

Temperatures should begin to warm back up over the weekend with 40s on Saturday and 50s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.

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