Tracking a warmer but still muggy Wednesday
ABILENE, Texas - Conditions will be similar to Tuesday with warm and muggy conditions along with a stray t'storm chance late this afternoon.
For today, we will begin with mostly cloudy skies then a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. It will continue to be muggy with temperatures warming to the upper 80s and lower 90s. A stray t'storm cannot be ruled out later this afternoon mainly south and east of Abilene. If anything does develop, hail and gusty winds would be the primary concern. Winds will be south-southwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight, we go back to mostly cloudy sky conditions with a stray t'shower chance being possible across the Big Country and the Heartland. We will return to the lower 70s with breezy winds out of the south at 15 to 25 mph.
We should start Thursday quiet with mostly cloudy skies with sun and clouds by the afternoon.
All week long, we've had the moisture, heat, and focus point (the dryline) for thunderstorms to spark. What has kept that mostly from happening is the lack of upper level support to break the cap which is just a layer of stable air preventing thunderstorms from developing.
That changes for Thursday afternoon and overnight as a weak upper level low drifts just to the north across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Although most of the support will remain to the north, the little assist that we will see here in West Central Texas should allow for t'storms to develop.
Some of those storms could be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds being the primary threat. There will be a small window during the late afternoon time frame for an isolated tornado to develop.
The threat for severe weather should continue to diminish as we go into the overnight period. Heavy rainfall would become a concern as t'storms are expected to cluster together.
By Friday morning, all activity should be east of Abilene and will be moving towards the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex with rain chances coming to an end by noon.
Mostly sunny skies should break out across Abilene by the afternoon.
With the exception of an isolated t'storm on Saturday mainly south in the Heartland and Concho Valley, most everyone should stay dry with near 90 degree high temperatures.
Unfortunately, it looks like the last part of Memorial Weekend will have the chance for some late day t'storms to develop. There will be a lack of upper level support but we cannot rule out one from popping up. Temperatures should max out in the 80s for Sunday and Monday.
Make sure to stay weather aware over the next several days as check back each day as the forecast continues to be tweaked.