Vice President Kamala Harris recently called it a "national emergency." Economists have warned it could have long-term "scarring effects" on the economy. Others have described it as a crisis and a threat to decades of progress.
On International Women's Day, top U.S. officials acknowledged the disproportionate economic hardship during the COVID-19 pandemic, where women have accounted for more than half of all workers who have been pushed out of the labor market.
President Joe Biden signed an executive order establishing a White House Gender Policy Council to advance gender equity and address the challenges for women who have borne the brunt of the pandemic downturn.
"The pandemic has exacerbated barriers that have historically impacted women and girls," said Julissa Reynosa, co-chair of the Gender Policy Council. Reynosa said the council would focus on the immediate challenge of returning women to the workforce while tackling long-term issues, like discrimination, wage gaps, the lack of affordable child care and paid family leave.
In an address to the European Parliament, Vice President Harris also highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health, safety and economic security of women everywhere. "Simply put, our world does not yet work for women as it should," she said.
The immediate situation is acute. In the past year, 2.3 million women lost their jobs and have stopped looking for work. Of the women who left, more than half were Black or Hispanic.
Given the shape of the recovery, there are fears that many of these women could be permanently displaced from employment opportunities or see lifelong setbacks to their earning potential.
"I do not think it's overstating things to say this could set us back a generation. It very easily could, given the numbers we're seeing right now," said Sarah Jane Glynn, a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress' women's initiative.
Women set records in 2019 with the lowest unemployment figures since the mid-20th century. The gender wage gap was inching closer to parity. Now, women's labor participation rate is at its lowest point in 34 years.
Jobs predominantly occupied by women and women of color were among the hardest hit by COVID-19 shutdowns. Women accounted for roughly 90% of employees at child day care services, preschool and kindergarten teachers, home health service workers, administrative assistants and housekeeping cleaners. Up to 70% of the leisure and hospitality sector was female.
The hospitality sector alone saw one-third of all pandemic job losses and has only recovered half of the jobs. Education, child care, home health care all took a hit and even in sectors dominated by men, like professional services, women accounted for the majority of the job losses.
It's unclear how long it will take for the economy to recover. At the current rate of job growth, it would take two years to return to pre-pandemic levels of unemployment.
The longer a person goes without employment, the harder it can be to get back into the workforce and the more likely a person is to take a lower-paying job than what they had previously, Glynn noted. Additionally, female caregivers could face additional discrimination, beyond pre-pandemic levels, which might further depress wages. "That can potentially follow you for the rest of your career," Glynn said.
Economists with the Dallas Federal Reserve warned that jobs worked by many Black, Hispanic women and mothers may not return as quickly as others. Experience from the Great Recession suggests that it could take years for participation rates to recover among vulnerable demographic groups, hindering overall economic growth.
Even women who kept their jobs during the downturn saw the increased burden of taking care of children during school closures or caring for sick or elderly family members.
Many took on the equivalent of a second full-time job to care for family during the pandemic. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 2021 Women in Work Index, women across industrialized countries spent 7.7 more hours per week than men on unpaid child care. The longer those conditions last and the higher the burden, the more likely women are to drop out of the labor force permanently, the report concluded.
"This past year is the first year we’re seeing the trends reverse as far as women's workforce participation," said Heather Arnet, CEO of the nonprofit Women and Girls Foundation.
Arnet applauded the Biden administration for standing up the Gender Policy Council to show a commitment to addressing the immediate and long-term issues of female labor participation. "The costs are quite significant to the whole community and to our national economy when parents are pushed out of the workforce because they don't have access to child care or paid sick day or paid leave," she said.
In recent months, the number of prime-aged women with children who were out of the workforce was four times the number of prime-aged men, according to Federal Reserve data. Men were also four times as likely to return to work six months after the start of the pandemic than women with small children.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard warned that if the trend was not soon reversed, it could have "longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth."
That means that beyond the effects on individuals and their families, a woman's ability to reconnect with employment is a problem for the broader economy.
"We’re talking about such large numbers of people, that this has a potential to seriously impact future economic growth and every aspect of our economy," Glynn noted. "Our economy can't work without women."
Making up about half of the workforce, women contributed roughly $7.6 trillion to the nation’s annual GDP in recent years. "If we don't make those investments now, it's not just going to be bad for the next couple of years, it's potentially going to be harming us decades into the future," Glynn said.
A survey by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation found that 12% of working parents were unlikely to return to their same work situation and another 10% were unsure whether they would return at all.
That would have a significant impact on the broader economy, according to a study by the Fourth Economy, a community development consulting firm. Using Allegheny County, Pennsylvania as an example, researchers found that a loss of 12% of working parents would cost the state and local governments $18 million in tax revenue and result in $442 million of lost wages.
The White House and proponents of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan have said the bill has plenty of provisions to help people struggling through the pandemic, particularly women.
Between $1,400 stimulus checks for all members of a household and enhanced child tax benefits, a working-class family of four could collect nearly $12,000. The bill provides an additional $300 per week in pandemic unemployment benefits through September. It also allocates funds to help schools reopen safely and hire additional staff.
Beyond the American Relief Plan, which could pass the House this week, President Biden is considering additional legislation to address the structural issues impacting women in the workplace.
Co-chairs of the Gender Policy Council said Monday that the president would focus next on paid family and medical leave, making child care more affordable and improving wages for paid caregivers.
"These are economic policies that we hope the new administration and Congress will put in place this year so that when the next crisis happens, whether that's to our nation or to a family, that a family is able to weather that storm and stay economically secure," said Arnet.